Opinion: For the Spring Meetings, the World Bank Group will focus on the policy and regulatory fundamentals that allow businesses to start, operate, expand — and hire.
By Ajay Banga, Elisabeth Svantesson
The world is entering a decade defined by two hard realities: a historic demographic surge and tighter public finances.
Over the next 10 to 15 years, more than 1 billion young people in developing countries will reach working age. They deserve the income, stability, and hope that only a job can provide.
Yet current projections suggest that far fewer jobs will be created. The gap is large — and it is growing. It’s exacerbated with every shock — conflict, natural disasters, and economic volatility.
At the same time, governments everywhere are operating with limited fiscal space. Debt is high, growth is uneven, and demands on public budgets continue to rise. The scale of the demographic challenge is historic. The scale of available public resources is not.
No country can meet this challenge alone. And no traditional model of development — relying primarily on public spending — can match its magnitude.
If countries succeed in creating jobs at scale, the benefits extend well beyond their borders: stronger growth, more resilient supply chains, and greater stability. If they fail, the consequences will also travel — through slower global growth, rising migration pressures, and increased fragility.
The question is not whether this transformation will reshape the global economy. It is whether we respond in a way that turns demographic pressure into shared opportunity.
The World Bank Group has focused work around a simple idea: Development must be judged by outcomes — by jobs created, incomes rising, poverty alleviation, and opportunities expanding.
That approach rests on three drivers. First, investing in infrastructure, both physical and human. Second, creating a business environment where firms can operate and grow. Third, mobilizing private capital at scale.
These pillars reinforce each other. But without the second — the enabling environment — neither public investment nor private capital will translate into jobs.
This is why the Development Committee, the governing body of the World Bank Group, is focusing the Spring Meetings on the policy and regulatory conditions that allow businesses to start, operate, expand — and hire. It is important to keep focus on this even in turbulent times.
A business-enabling environment is not abstract. It is practical.
It means clear rules. Predictable regulation. Contracts that are enforced. Permits that move on time. Tax systems that are understandable. Financial systems that channel capital to productive use.
When these elements are in place, firms of all sizes invest. When they are not, capital stays on the sidelines.
Evidence is consistent across regions and income levels: Regulatory uncertainty is not just a drag on growth — it is a deal breaker for investment.
This matters because the private sector creates the vast majority of jobs. Governments can build the foundations. But entrepreneurs and businesses create employment.
That is why the enabling environment is a force multiplier. It turns inputs — roads, power, skills — into outcomes: businesses that grow and people who work.
The reforms required are not theoretical. They are practical and often well understood.
For entrepreneurs and microenterprises, it means simpler registration, fewer layers of bureaucracy, and access to basic financial tools that allow them to move beyond subsistence.
For small and growing businesses, it means streamlined permits, predictable taxation, clear land rights, and access to working capital.
For larger firms, it means competition frameworks that keep markets open, procurement systems that are transparent, and trade and customs processes that allow integration into global value chains.
Across all of this, the basics matter most: macroeconomic stability, regulatory predictability, and institutions that function consistently. Without these, firms remain small, informal, and unable to create jobs at scale.
The lesson is simple: Investment follows predictability.
Sweden demonstrates that competitiveness depends not only on capital, but on the quality of institutions behind it. Clear rules, efficient public administration, and a business environment that reduces friction while ensuring equal opportunities for the entire population are central to growth.
Recent efforts in Sweden to simplify regulation and improve permitting processes reflect a broader principle: When governments reduce uncertainty and improve implementation, they make it easier for businesses to invest, expand, and hire.
These lessons are relevant well beyond Sweden. In many developing economies, the binding constraint is not only access to finance. It is the absence of regulatory certainty and implementation capacity that allows finance to turn into investment — and investment into jobs.
The World Bank Group is working to scale such reforms in a structured way.
Through our Knowledge Bank, we are bringing together decades of experience on what works and what does not. Through new country engagement models, we are linking diagnostics, policy reform, and financing into coherent programs focused on job creation and poverty alleviation.
And through tools such as Business Ready along with Women, Business and the Law, we are identifying regulatory gaps that hold back growth and participation — and working with countries to address barriers that limit women’s economic opportunity.
This is not about one-off reforms. It is about building systems that allow firms to grow over time.
The demographic surge ahead cannot be met through public budgets alone. Nor can it be addressed through fragmented approaches.
It requires partnership — grounded in mutual interest and focused on results.
That means helping countries build infrastructure. But it also means helping them build the regulatory environments that allow businesses to thrive.
It means using scarce public resources to reduce risk and crowd in private capital. And it means measuring success not by commitments made, but by jobs created.
If we get this right, the coming decade can be one of expanded opportunity, where young people find productive work, economies grow, and stability strengthens.
If we do not, the consequences will be felt far beyond any one country.
Turning demographic pressure into shared prosperity will require discipline, partnership, and leadership.
That work must begin now — and it must be done together.